Indeed a long shot at this point, Konstantinos...
Yet does not hurt to try.

 

Nope, it's "Late 2018". So assuming that production until then will not go perfectly smooth, I think it's 2019, but hopes are up!

 

I assume this is just a place holder until they know when they can do deliveries and they'll need some time to figure it out.
After all any major production ramp up is tough. When they have figured it out and adjusted delivery estimates for German customers it would be really nice to read it (also here).

My rough estimates based on limited projected production ramp up data is that they could produce 300000 Model 3 until the end of 2018. Since I did reserve during the reveal and until then there were "only" 115000 reservations at the time (perhaps including mine), I somehow expect them to deliver my car within the summer of 2018. That is if everything works rather smoothly. Let's wait and see.

 

I assume this is just a place holder until they know when they can do deliveries and they'll need some time to figure it out.
(...)

Totally.

(...)
My rough estimates based on limited projected production ramp up data is that they could produce 300000 Model 3 until the end of 2018. Since I did reserve during the reveal and until then there were "only" 115000 reservations at the time (perhaps including mine), I somehow expect them to deliver my car within the summer of 2018. That is if everything works rather smoothly. Let's wait and see.

Though I hope they'll make more than 300k next year although it is a reasonable projections, the summer is probably optimistic, Konstantinos, since T≡SLA will maximize US deliveries in 2018 to help with the federal tax credit. Late 3Q/early 4Q may be more likely, IMHO...

Yeah, good luck on that. I needed some time to contemplate my moneys and I think at 4/4/16 there were already 300k to 400k reservations. So I guess 2019.
But the masses are most likely in the US, so it's really hard to guess at which point the first German will have his/her car.

As stated above, trust by early 4Q, we can see the earliest EU deliveries... with a 4/4 reservation you may still be looking at a nice Christmas (or Sylvester?! ) present, @Dash ... :rainbow:

 

Yeah, good luck on that. I needed some time to contemplate my moneys and I think at 4/4/16 there were already 300k to 400k reservations. So I guess 2019.
But the masses are most likely in the US, so it's really hard to guess at which point the first German will have his/her car.

 

Well, this is how my estimation of 300000 Model 3 built by the end of 2018 goes:

Month Production Sum
2017-07 50 50
2017-08 100 150
2017-09 1500 1650
2017-10 2200 3850
2017-11 3200 7050
2017-12 5000 12050
2018-01 6500 18550
2018-02 8500 27050
2018-03 11000 38050
2018-04 14000 52050
2018-05 17500 69550
2018-06 21500 91050
2018-07 26000 117050
2018-08 31000 148050
2018-09 36500 184550
2018-10 38000 222550
2018-11 40000 262550
2018-12 41666 304216


I know that I'm making quite a number of assumptions and taking some guesses but if all works well it may not be too far off. Numbers for 2017 are basically from the graph Tesla provided. The numbers for 2017-12 and 2018-12 were also provided by Tesla.

Considering this July-August 2018 could be possible for my 2016-03-31 reservation (online).
I won't have a nervous breakdown if it takes until Q4 (just will cry silently ).

 

Well, this is how my estimation of 300000 Model 3 built by the end of 2018 goes:

Month Production Sum
2017-07 50 50
2017-08 100 150
2017-09 1500 1650
2017-10 2200 3850
2017-11 3200 7050
2017-12 5000 12050
2018-01 6500 18550
2018-02 8500 27050
2018-03 11000 38050
2018-04 14000 52050
2018-05 17500 69550
2018-06 21500 91050
2018-07 26000 117050
2018-08 31000 148050
2018-09 36500 184550
2018-10 38000 222550
2018-11 40000 262550
2018-12 41666 304216

I think your schedule is quite wrong. By december 2017, they already plan to be on 5000 units/week. This means 2018-01 should be >20'000 units, your estimate won't reach that for another 6 months...

 

Hi, I'm from switzerland and my reservation date is 31/03/2016.
I was #3 in Bern.
My delivery estimation for RN xyz made on March 31, 2016 is Late 2018.
As for each europe early reservation.
My hope is the same as yours but I think first Tesla has first the european registration things to do and then define the exactly delivery time schedule. Hope this registration goes faster than calculated and then we would have our Model 3 earlier.

 

(...)Hope this registration goes faster than calculated and then we would have our Model 3 earlier.

Hi there, Swiss friend!
Be sure all of us on this side of the water hope for the same!

 

How do you know that you are #3 in Bern? I might be number 2 or one
My reservation I made from another Model S holder, so I might will get it quicker.

 

He was probably in-line in the store there I guess

 

I know it's not very S-curvy, but it will not add overly much for the total sum even if I adjusted that, at least no magnitudes.

 

I just logged on the MyTesla and now it shows early 2019 instead of late 2018. This is not good.

 

Yep. Yet to be expected and, IMHO, no big deal for us Europeans at this point, lieber Konstantinos...

 

Yeah, still disappointing though
My friends will tease me even more now. :fearscream:

 

Hang in there... I'll do the same...

As long as I get Midnight S≡R≡NITY before my best (German) friend gets his Mercedes EQ C... I'm ok..

 

Just checked again, because a few days ago, it was still 2018 .. but yeah, same here. Early 19.
That was to be expected - like Michael said - based on calculations with 5000 cars per week by mid 2018, but still.
I had my hopes that the European cars come from the Amsterdam factory and that they start early enough, but these hopes are gone now, too.
My Harrison has to do the job at least another year, as it seems.

 

Just checked again, because a few days ago, it was still 2018 .. but yeah, same here. Early 19.
That was to be expected - like Michael said - based on calculations with 5000 cars per week by mid 2018, but still.
I had my hopes that the European cars come from the Amsterdam factory and that they start early enough, but these hopes are gone now, too.
My Harrison has to do the job at least another year, as it seems.

Just for accuracy, you are probably referring to the Tilburg assembly plant in the Netherlands. We have no confirmation on the European supply plans remember... Let's be patient...

 

Didn't really believe we would get M3 in Europe in 2018 after the last production delay. Still sad to see it in my account. More time to save money.

I think they need to hurry to ship it to Europe. VAG will try to beat Tesla's price with similar or smaller cars, even if they loose money with them:

"I.D. is a highly automated electric car that will cover a distance of 400 to 600 kilometres on a single battery charge. The production version of the I.D. is due to be launched in 2020 at a price on a par with comparably powerful and well-equipped Golf."
(http://www.volkswagen.co.uk/about-us/concept-cars/volkswagen-id)

Up until now it's vaporware, but who knows...

 

(...)
I think they need to hurry to ship it to Europe. VAG will try to beat Tesla's price with similar or smaller cars, even if they loose money with them:

"I.D. is a highly automated electric car that will cover a distance of 400 to 600 kilometres on a single battery charge. (...)
(http://www.volkswagen.co.uk/about-us/concept-cars/volkswagen-id)

Up until now it's vaporware, but who knows...

VAG is mostly talk. After all they recently have become known for, they're on my black list.
And even here. Remember quoted range for ID here is on NEDC, so take at least 33% off...

WLTP is the new kid in town!!

 

I hope you don't mind me joining you, coming from The Netherlands. After all, we're (nearly) all EU-citizens.

To be honest, the delay didn't surprise me. Seeing the extended delay in production ramp up. Apparently needing a complete new production line for the GigaFactory, which is around now being shipped from Germany to Fremont. Add to that the way recent US owners are given preference over non-owners. Which will be repeated for all new versions, which probably will come out before the first cars are shipped to Europe.
In my view this means that we may be very glad in we get our Model 3 in Europe in the first half of 2019. But I rather expect it will be end 2019, or even 2020...

FYI, there is an assembly factory in Tilburg. The office of EU-headquarters is in Amsterdam.
At the Tilburg factory they join shells, motors, fluids and battery packs, of Models S and X. This way they save transport and import costs. It's not clear yet, but there are serious suspicions that Model 3 will also get final assembly in Tilburg. The factory has been extended the pasts months.

 

Add to that the way recent US owners are given preference over non-owners.

It's the Canadians now. Sigh.

 

"A bit different" is OK, but they usually look horribly different, and nothing anyone would ever want to buy... It's just stupid.

 

Point taken. But your "State/Province::

Rödermark​

" does not disprove my point--about Americans' driving habits. For your driving habits, I salute you, sir!

Sober driving habits and German drivers are things which don't equalise in my mind. They love doing 100 mph whenever possible, 'normal/advised speed' in Germany is 80 mph.
Of course there are exceptions...

 

I used to go much faster before I was thinking this through. I used to travel 250 km to work at the beginning of a week and the same distance back at the end of the week and apart from road constructions sites with speed limits my usual travel speed was 200 km/h (125 mph) where possible. I just wanted to get it over quckly. Mind you even at that speed I was occationally taken over...

For three years I had a Volvo S60 T5 and was going up to 266 km/h (166 mph). In retrospect this was insane. Anyway, that car used 10.5 l/100 km, which was not that much considering how I drove the thing and compared to other cars of the same performance class (Audi, BMW, Mercedes et al).

Now I have a Renault ZOE, top speed of the car is 135 km/h and I usualy go 110 km/h max. - looks like I am capable of learning after all...

 

With the amount of construction and traffic going on, not to mention cars or trucks blocking the middle/left lanes, anything above 160km/h (99mph) isn't practical nowadays. That accelerating and decelerating combined with strain due to the higher speed is quite stressful. With full autonomy people will be able to spent the time more productively, and won't care about having to drive a few minutes longer. And maybe there'll be an updated version of the motorail concept.

 

It's possible still today (also practically) to go faster but yes, it's stressful. It's also objectively not good for anyone. However, some of my friends still go way above 200 km/h regularly, one used to travel at close to 300 km/h regularly with his Porsche 911. He drives slightly slower now in his 5 m long Audi. Go figure. I'm still wondering if he changes his driving profile first or electric cars will be made to match such crazy speeds/ranges. I bet on his driving profile to change first (as in less driving).

 

something like a Kia Stinger electric would've been a thing but.. they like it dirty and loud.

 

With all the recent invites in the US, this had to be posted.

Meanwhile, my account still shows delivery early 2019, driving bans in german cities might happen soon and I own a euro5 diesel

 

With all the recent invites in the US, this had to be posted. {snip}

Apropos! It was a nice touch to have the chaps from Munro & Associates comment at the end of the video.

 

(...)
Meanwhile, my account still shows delivery early 2019, driving bans in german cities might happen soon and I own a euro5 diesel

Correct me if I'm wrong, Marcumar, but aren't Euro5 & Euro6 in the clear for now? Obviously, the 'older' Diesel engines (>7-8 years) are under threat much sooner, no?

 

No, they are talking about driving bans for all Diesels except Euro6d.

There're plans to create new emissions stickers to ban most of the diesel and also a lot of petrol cars from the city centres, based on the European emission standards. That is by itself plain stupidity, because there're some Euro4 diesels that are cleaner than Euro6 ones. For that consumers and automotive industry are both to blame. It gets really absurd, when you look at the weight gain and the unnecessary increase of engine power of cars in the recent years, fuelled by this stupid SUV-hype. Smaller cars usually have lower emissions than bigger cars, quite simple. This increase in power/weight was only possible, because the NEDC is so lenient and manufacturers used turbocharging to boost efficiency, thereby also boosting NO-Emissions.

If these driving bans are coming, then there will be a lot of special permits for civil service vehicles, like ambulances, police cars, garbage trucks, buses etc. Nearly all of them are diesel vehicles, so the air quality won't improve that much.

Most experts agree that SCR-retrofits would be the best solution, payed by the manufacturers. Their cheating during the emission tests caused this whole dilemma. Cleaner cars build would have meant cleaner cities now. Or if they couldn't achieve the emission standards, other technologies would have been used and sold.

But the lobby for the automotive industry is still strong. The new minister of transport is, like his incompetent and corrupt predecessor, still preaching that software updates will make the diesels cleaner and prevent driving bans. So I guess in the end that leaves private owners like me to pay the bill. On top of that, the resell value for diesel cars in Germany is plummeting.

Here is some reading on the topic (in English):
http://www.spiegel.de/international...any/driving-bans-loom-in-germany-as-court-rules-against-diesel-a-1196196-2.html

 

@Marcumar , I see. Hopefully final legislation won't be as restrictive.
First time I hear about Euro6d. I was left at Euro6...
How do you know if you're 6d or earlier.
Before Red Dragon, we have a mid'16 BMW 425d Cabrion, an 08/17 Peugeot 2008 2.0Hdi, both of them AFAIK Euro6, and a 09/11 Alfa Giuletta 1.6 turbodiesel which is at best Euro5... Keeping the last two for our girls...

 

Only the most up-to-date diesel cars are able to comply with Euro6d. Here is a list of the current available ones:

https://www.adac.de/infotestrat/umwelt-und-innovation/abgas/modelle_mit_euro_6d_temp/default.aspx

 

Wahnsinn!

 

https://electrek.co/2018/04/10/tesla-model-3-vehicles-imported-fleet-rental-cars/

uiuiuiui :smiley:

Let's chip some money together and rent one, and do the first test drive on the Autobahn (if you don't count the German manufacturers :tongueout.

 

If you drive it to Switzerland to me, then sure

 

The Swiss speed limit and the amount of speed cameras don't agree with my style of driving

 

I hope someone in Hamburg does the same thing, don't want to go all the way to Neuss.
That meaning can't convince my wife to spend the time and money to go all the way to Neuss to see and drive a special car.

 

Trust you saw this post and the thread, @Dash ? Not sure which of Moers or Berlin would be best for you yet feels like there is unfortunately nothing closer to Hamburg...

 

Has anybody called Autovermietung Arndt? The Model 3s are not available on their website, yet. Also I wonder how they are supposed to be charged. Superchargers are very unlikely (see You You's Tesla Model 3 Road Trip) and using an adapter from type 2 to type 1/US Tesla can result in anything between 3.7 and 7.4 kW (depending on your charger) but not more since AC is limited to a single phase for US Teslas. They also have no Internet connection. So no updates, no real navigation. No parts, no service, no support.

Internally there are three chargers at either 115V*48A or 230V*24A and for Europe they will be all connected seperatly to either a type 2 or a CCS type 2 plug, hence 16.5 kW max. in Europe. In a US Tesla it appears those three chargers are all in paralel and go to a single phase input. It would be theoretically 230V*72 A with all three chargers in parallel. I can't remember if that can be achieved in a Model 3.