[patrick0101]

There are 400,000+ people waiting for a Model 3. How many will Tesla make this year? My meager estimate is 80,000. Teslanomics is estimating 200k. Your guesstimate?

 

[Yapper]

There are 400,000+ people waiting for a Model 3. How many will Tesla make this year? My meager estimate is 80,000. Teslanomics is estimating 200k. Your guesstimate?

80000 seems pretty low as that would imply that they are only averaging 1500 per week. That would be pretty bad and Tesla would most likely be in significant financial trouble.

 

[SoFlaModel3]

My guess 175k.

 

[tivoboy]

I really think its going to be under 150K. but over 100K. had to pick 120-150

 

[John]

On the last earnings call, Elon stated that they were aiming for a production rate of 5000 units a week by the end of Q1.
We'll get an update on that on the Q4 earnings call on Wednesday, Feb 7 at 2:30pm California time.

Pessimistic:

Ramp Q1: 700-1500 = 13*1100=14300
Ramp Q2: 1500-2500 = 13*2000=26000
Ramp Q3: 2500-4000 = 13*3250=42250
Ramp Q4: 4000-5000 = 13*4500=58500
14.3+ 26 + 42.3 + 58.5 ~= 141K

Things go pretty well, but still a bit lower than recent Tesla guidance:

Ramp Q1: 700-4000= 13*2350=30550
Ramp Q2: 4000-5000= 13*4500=58500
Ramp Q3: 5000-7500= 13*6250=81200
Ramp Q4: 7500-9000= 13*8250=107250
30.6+ 58.5 + 81.2 + 107.3 ~= 278K

Both are no doubt lower than Tesla's recent guidance.
Seems pretty rosy, but still just roughly half of they were shooting for 2018. Still, making this ramp would do wonders for any TSLA shares that you hold. It would mean that Tesla revenue would double year to year, reverse the cash outflow, and move Tesla closer to sustained profitability.

I'll go 190K.

 

[McHoffa]

On the last earnings call, Elon stated that they were aiming for a production rate of 5000 units a week by the end of Q1.
We'll get an update on that on the Q4 earnings call on Wednesday, Feb 7 at 2:30pm California time.

Pessimistic:

Ramp Q1: 700-1500 = 12*1100=13200
Ramp Q2: 1500-2500 = 12*2000=24000
Ramp Q3: 2500-4000 = 12*3250=38500
Ramp Q4: 4000-5000 = 12*4500=54000
13.2+ 24 + 38.5 + 54 = 129.7K ~= 130K

Things go pretty well, but still a bit lower than recent Tesla guidance:

Ramp Q1: 700-4000= 12*2350=28200
Ramp Q2: 4000-5000= 12*4500=54000
Ramp Q3: 5000-7500= 12*6250=75000
Ramp Q4: 7500-9000= 12*8250=99000
28.2+ 54 + 75 + 99 = 256.2K ~= 256K

Both are no doubt lower than Tesla's recent guidance.
Seems pretty rosy, but still just roughly half of they were shooting for 2018. Still, making this ramp would do wonders for any TSLA shares that you hold. It would mean that Tesla revenue would double year to year, reverse the cash outflow, and move Tesla closer to sustained profitability.

I'll go 190K.

FYI, there are 13 weeks per quarter

 

[Michael Russo]

FYI, there are 13 weeks per quarter

A good reason for going for 200+ thousands

 

[SolarPro]

The highest VINs we’ve seen have been in the 4000’s, which is not great for end of January. I’m getting more pessimistic.

 

[RichEV]

The highest VINs we've seen have been in the 4000's, which is not great for end of January. I'm getting more pessimistic.

the highest vin in the spreadsheet as of today is 63xx. more optimistic

 

[Bokonon]

This is going to be uncharacteristically un-optimistic for me, but my WAG of a ramp is linear with plateaus around the time new configurations are introduced. 5K / week by end of year instead of end of Q2.

January: 4000
February: 6000
March: 8000
April: 10,000 <-- Base config production starts
May: 10,000
June: 10,000 <-- AWD production starts
July: 12,000
August: 14,000
September: 16,000 <-- My car is magically delivered on Sep. 30th just before my lease expires and tax credit reduces
October: 18,000
November: 20,000
December: 22,000

Total: 150,000

 

[jsmay311]

On the last earnings call, Elon stated that they were aiming for a production rate of 5000 units a week by the end of Q1.

That's out of date. Their latest target for 5000/week is now for the end of Q2 and only 2,500/week by the end of Q1.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/03/tesla-q4-2017-production-and-delivery-numbers.html

Every 3 months the target has moved out 3 months.
In July '17, it was 5000/week in December '17.
At the end of Q3 '17, it was by the end of Q1 '18.
At the end of Q4 '17, it was by the end of Q2 '18.

There's a joke about fusion energy in there somewhere.

 

[Michael Russo]

This is going to be uncharacteristically un-optimistic for me, but my WAG of a ramp is linear with plateaus around the time new configurations are introduced. (...)

I guess conservative is safe. However, I really see them growing notably above 5k a week during 2h18...
However they do it, 200k has got to be a minimum goal for T≡SLA at this point.

That's out of date. Their latest target for 5000/week is now for the end of Q2 and only 2,500/week by the end of Q1. (...)
Every 3 months the target has moved out 3 months.
(...)

And there is no reason this has to continue that way...

 

[SoFlaModel3]

The highest VINs we've seen have been in the 4000's, which is not great for end of January. I'm getting more pessimistic.

My 59XX arrives 2/1!

 

[dogfood]

However they do it, 200k has got to be a minimum goal for T≡SLA at this point.

Obviously they have goals, but in the throes of battle, everyone has to balance the big "musts." Putting out 200k cars where 30% of them have to come back for some serious work would obviously be worse for the company than producing 140k cars. It's doubtful Tesla has any hard and fast production metrics (unless Elon is just posturing in hopes of motivating the workforce). They're just doing what they can.

 

[Michael Russo]

Obviously they have goals, but in the throes of battle, everyone has to balance the big "musts." Putting out 200k cars where 30% of them have to come back for some serious work would obviously be worse for the company than producing 140k cars. It's doubtful Tesla has any hard and fast production metrics (unless Elon is just posturing in hopes of motivating the workforce). They're just doing what they can.

Obviously I agree with you about cars produced and delivered having to be 'right first fime'. Also that T≡SLA will produce 'as many as they can'...

I cannot imagine a return rate of 30% and trust you were quoting that number to make your point.

However with half a million reservations, or more, on the table, I equally have a hard time they don't have a challenging yet attainable production goal for 2018 at this point...

 

[NRG4All]

My guess 175k.

I agree with you. If (a big if) Tesla gets up to 5,000 per week by the end of Q2, that would mean the total for the second half would be 130,000 (26x5,000). If we assume that the first half averages half of that as it ramps to the 5,000, then the first half would be 65,000 for a total of 195,000 for the year. But then who knows? I'm just guessing.

 

[Michael Russo]

I agree with you. If (a big if) Tesla gets up to 5,000 per week by the end of Q2, that would mean the total for the second half would be 130,000 (26x5,000). If we assume that the first half averages half of that as it ramps to the 5,000, then the first half would be 65,000 for a total of 195,000 for the year. But then who knows? I'm just guessing.

Yet that's just it, you see. This also assume an unchanged output of 5k through the entire 2H which is another big if. To the extent they do reach 5k by mid-year, I don't see them stuck there through YE. Again, there are probably half a million reservations now, or more and that number will rise with all these beautiful cars in Stores across the USA!!

 

[SolarPro]

the highest vin in the spreadsheet as of today is 63xx. more optimistic

Oh, great! Thank you!

 

[NRG4All]

Yet that's just it, you see. This also assume an unchanged output of 5k through the entire 2H which is another big if. To the extent they do reach 5k by mid-year, I don't see them stuck there through YE. Again, there are probably half a million reservations now, or more and that number will rise with all these beautiful cars in Stores across the USA!!

It will be very interesting to see how the backlog perhaps even grows when all of these Model 3s get on the road. One just was put into a Scottsdale Showroom. We (my wife and I) plan on seeing it in a couple of weeks. A friend of mine who has vowed never to buy a Model 3 now says that he and his wife will accompany us when we go. He's not against the car as much as he is waiting for the $35,000 model.

 

[MichelT3]

Yet that's just it, you see. This also assume an unchanged output of 5k through the entire 2H which is another big if. To the extent they do reach 5k by mid-year, I don't see them stuck there through YE. Again, there are probably half a million reservations now, or more and that number will rise with all these beautiful cars in Stores across the USA!!

5000 pw end of Q2 in Tesla time means hopefully 5000 pw end Q3.
For more than 5000 pw they need to start up a new production line, which I don't see happening this year.
13 * 5000 + 39 * (avg 1000-5000) = 182,000
This will only succeed if no more major problems happen during this ramp up. For instance after introducing SR or AWD.
Which means that this is really optimistic.